Research

Chapter 1: Public Support for Community Microgrids, Jesse Kaczmarski

2022 Energy Economics 115 (November): 106344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106344

Abstract: Utility-owned community microgrids can provide communities with decentralized grid access to distributed energy resources and improve reliability and resiliency. However, the feasibility of installing microgrids requires rigorous cost-benefit analysis, which should incorporate social values. Currently, the gap in our understanding of ratepayers' preferences for community microgrid services leaves stakeholders guessing. Using a survey-based contingent valuation method, with a referendum-style elicitation format, this paper provides evidence of public support for community microgrid installations in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah (the Four Corners). The Four Corners region is unique in its potential for renewable electricity capacity as well as heterogeneous state policy objectives regarding the transition to clean energy. A split-sample survey of 4783 Four Corner's ratepayers resulted in between 40 and 45% of respondents voting to support a community microgrid installation (after controlling for hypothetical bias) with a median willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $25.44 (divided among 24 months) if the ratepayer received direct benefits, or $13.92 if they received indirect benefits. Ratepayers in Utah were willing to pay the most relative to the other states. Results highlight the impacts of ideological, institutional, and socioeconomic factors on public support and WTP.

Chapter 2: The Marginal Generation and Emissions Impacts of Hydropower: Evidence from the Colorado River Storage Project, Jesse Kaczmarski and Benjamin Jones

Working Paper (Coming Soon)

Abstract: As electric grids continue to modernize through infrastructure improvements and increased intermittent capacity, hydropower has an important role as a source of low-emission electricity that supplies both baseload and peaking power. In many areas of the world, hydropower production is under threat of becoming less flexible and more constrained due to regulatory constraints, ongoing drought, and changing weather patterns associated with climate change. Hydropower has historically been known to offset dirtier and more expensive fossil fuels, but the scope and magnitude of these offsets remain largely unknown. To-date, there has been no work that directly examines the generation, emissions, and air pollution effects of replacing hydropower with fossil fuel power generation. In this study, we provide the first evidence of forecastable hydropower generation and pollutant (CO₂, SO₂, and NO₂) offsets and ambient ozone reductions at the hourly level for a public non-profit power wholesaler in the northern part of the US state of Colorado. Hourly generations and emissions data are employed in a high-dimensional fixed effects model. We find the marginal effect of an additional unit (MWh) of hydropower is a reduction of all fossil fuel generation by 0.21 MWh. We also quantify the marginal effects of wind and solar generation. We then estimate the marginal effect of an additional unit of hydropower on levels of CO₂, SO₂, and NO_X from the study region’s main generating facility, finding that hydropower is associated with reductions of 0.26 tons, 0.18 pounds, and 0.28 pounds respectively. Finally, we use ambient ozone levels from monitoring stations in the study region and find that when accounting for dispersion, the marginal effect of an additional unit of hydropower is a reduction of ambient ozone levels by 0.0010 parts per million. We then approximate the spatial impacts of these findings on health outcomes using concentration response and health impact functions derived from the epidemiological literature.

Keywords: Hydropower; generation offsets; emissions offsets; air pollution; fossil fuels; Colorado River

JEL Codes: Q41, Q42, Q52

Chapter 3: Estimating the Marginal Effects of Exogenous Renewable Generation on Battery Dispatch: Evidence from the California Independent System Operator, Jesse Kaczmarski

Working Paper

Abstract: Given the recent rise in utility-scale battery storage in California, this study presents the first empirical evidence for how batteries respond to solar and wind availability. I employ hourly fuel mix data from the California Independent System Operator from 2019 to 2021, along with a high-dimensional fixed effects model, to estimate the marginal effect of exogenous renewable availability on battery dispatch. I find that as battery capacity increases throughout the sample, battery dispatch patterns do indeed follow solar and wind availability, which satisfies arbitrage and policy objectives within California. I also show evidence of a non-linear relationship between battery charging and exogenous renewable generation, where charging only occurs at the highest quantiles of availability. Finally, I note that resource availability explains a minor amount of variation in battery dispatch patterns, for which I also discuss potential mechanisms and policy implications.

Keywords: Storage, battery, renewables, wholesale energy markets

Committee on Studies: Benjamin Jones (Chair), Janie Chermak, Robert Berrens, and Seth Blumsack (Penn State University)